Just 60 days prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and again when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
